College Basketball Value Picks 11/19

Long Beach State is getting 3 points at San Diego State.  SDS is 1-4 against the spread this season so far and hasn't lived up to their hype.  They lost their top 4 scorers last year but, will compete defensively.  With that being said, LBS, is the real deal this year and they know it.  They have scheduled a very tough first half of the season facing off with 5 ranked opponents and already knocking down Pittsburgh at home.  If you watched the game, it was no fluke.  They are athletic, and can score in many ways.  I'm already on the bandwagon.  Take Long Beach.

Gonzaga is a 13 point favorite at home against Hawaii.  Hawaii is a more experienced team but, just a lack of talent.  Gonzaga will beat you in many ways and are a GREAT free throw shooting team shooting 76% last season.  Adding freshman guard Kevin Pangos has really taken this team to the next level, as he is a proficient 3 point shooter and a great passer.  Expect to hear his name a lot more this year along with Gonzaga big man Robert Sacre.  Take Gonzaga.

Dana White's Actions Atrocious

History was made last night for the sport of MMA. Junior Dos Santos and Cain Velasquez squared off for the Heavyweight Championship of the World and in just a minute and 4 seconds Junior was pulled off of Cain Velasquez and won the fight by TKO. Junior was so emotional he was brought to tears after the fight. You could just see how bad he wanted it. Cain was humble in defeat congratulating his opponent saying he fought a great fight. It's too bad that a great heavyweight spectacle was overshadowed and the debut of the sport of MMA on network television was all but ruined by the President of the UFC.

After the fight, just like the before the fight, the show went to the booth and Fox broadcaster Curt Menefee. Alongside Menefee was UFC President Dana White and former UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar. Dana was visibly upset from the onset. Dana began to throw Cain Velasquez and his entire training camp at the reknown American Kickboxing Academy under the bus. Dana questioned why Cain didn't go for the takedown early in the fight instead trying to stand and bang with Junior. Dana called it stupid gameplanning. Then, and most shocking to me, he said, about his new champion, that he is known for getting tired in the latter rounds of fights. That was his first comment made about his newly crowned champion. Not congratulations, he fought a good fight or like Brock Lesnar said, "Hats off." On top of this you could see by Dana White's body language how upset he was. So upset that Junior Dos Santos won and Cain lost. So upset that the fight only last 1 minute which aside from scripting the fight you have absolutely no control over.

Now let's move onto the postfight press conference. After watching the Fox postfight I was stunned that Dana acted the way he did and thought it could just be the heat of the moment and he needed some time to cool off and that the press conference would be different. I was wrong. Dana basically repeated the same thing and then, and I dont know what prompted this, told the fans to stop "b***hing" about not seeing other fights and if they wanted to see all the fights they should have bought a "f***ing" ticket. This is the President of the UFC calling out it's FANS. My mind was completely blown after this and I was mulling all night exactly what I was going to say about Dana White this morning.

First let me point out some of the idiotic comments Dana made. Before the fight Dana was said and I quote, "Whether this fight lasts 30 seconds or 30 minutes, it's going to be an exciting fight." So obviously with it lasting a minute and 4 seconds Dana shouldn't of had a problem. Dana said that Cain should have came out and went for the takedown early and not stand and trade with Junior. Dana, the fight lasted a minute and 4 seconds, it was still very early in the fight. Cain was in the feeling out process, finding the range getting prepared to shoot in for the takedown. Did you want this to be a wrestling match where Cain laid on top of Junior for 5 rounds? That would have been the worst case scenario all around. The next thing Dana said was that Junior is known for getting tired late in fights. Really? That's odd, I've watched all of Junior's fights and have never seen him gas. Obviously come the 3rd round your not as fresh as you were in the first round but he has never gassed or come close to gassing. The beating that Junior put on Roy Nelson was a 3 round beatdown that, thanks to Roy's incredible chin and durability, went to a decision, but Junior was far from gassed. For Dana to negatively comment on the newly crowned champion is stupid, thoughtless and groundless based on what he said. Dana acted like a spoiled brat kid who had just gotten his new toy taken away as opposed to the supposedly unbiased President of the company.

Dana White singlehandedly made the sport look bad. Brock Lesnar had more professionalism and this is a guy who spent a long time in the WWE. Cain was a cash cow for Dana and was hyped up as this Mexican-American wrecking machine who beat the untouchable Brock Lesnar so he, in turn, is invincible. Junior went out and dissipated the air of invincibility with a single punch and Dana's new heavyweight ATM, Cain Velasquez, went down in a heap. Dana should have been able to disguise his emotion on the nationally televised broadcast but he wasn't able to and showed blatant bias toward Cain. So much so that it was sickening. It's like Roger Goodell going to an NFL game and wearing a specific teams jersey. A big no no.

Lastly, I want to say that I hope the next show can bounce back and Dana learns to control his emotion no matter the circumstance. There were a few kinks in the first MMA production on network television but overall it was a good product that hopefully attracted new fans. Also, a big congratulations goes out to the new UFC Heavyweight Champion, Junior Dos Santos. He did what he does and finished the fight early. I said before the fight that he has the best hands in the heavyweight division and he proved it last night. The best thing about it is, it couldn't have happened to a nicer person.

UFC on Fox Preview

We are officially 1 day away from MMA, a sport still in it's infancy, from hitting the mainstream. Tomorrow night MMA's biggest and most popular organization, the UFC, will put it's show on network television and FOX. Ten years ago Senator John McCain was attempting to get the sport banned claiming it was "human cockfighting". The sport of MMA wasn't allowed on PPV let alone network television. Nobody wanted to touch it. Until....Zuffa, which consists of Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta and their childhood friend Dana White, chose to purchase the UFC for a measly 2 million dollars. After making Dana White the President of the UFC the Fertitta brothers invested close to 40 million dollars. The company didn't turn a profit until 2006 with the help of the hit TV show The Ultimate Fighter which produced such stars as Forrest Griffin, Kenny Florian and Stephan Bonnar.

Now the UFC is a billion dollar company making over 40 of their fighters millionaires and over 20 fighters multi-millionaires. The sport has grown immensely every year and Dana White has been quoted as saying, "Fighting is a language that every country speaks." I'd say he is right considering the UFC is in 155 countries, in 22 different languages, in over a half of a billion homes worldwide. Tomorrow night, on FOX, is history in the making. It's the greatest combat sport, and now it's mainstream. Here is my breakdown of the biggest fight in the sports history, the main event tomorrow night, undefeated Heavyweight Champ Cain Velasquez vs Junior Dos Santos.

This fight is free? This fight is the first fight on network television and it's for the heavyweight championship of the world? Are you kidding me? Somebody pinch me I must be dreaming. This is the closest possible fight to a Frazier/Ali type fight that the UFC could make, and they did.

Cain Velasquez is an absolute animal. Cain has torn through every fighter he has ever faced including first round TKO's against the likes of Brock Lesnar, Antonio Nogeuira, and Ben Rothwell. Nobody has really even challenged Cain, he has had his way with every opponent he has faced to amass his 9-0 record. Cain has continuously worked on his standup which is ever improving with his team at American Kickboxing Academy. However Cain's bread and butter is his wrestling and relentlessness. He is continuously moving forward and fights like a lightweight who has a ton of cardio. A standout wrestler at Arizona State, Cain has never had a problem getting a fight to the ground and look for him to look for the takedown early in this fight.

Junior Dos Santos is the complete opposite. Here is a fighter whom, if anyone, you could say has looked as impressive as Cain Velasquez. Junior has destroyed his opponents but has done it solely on his feet as opposed to using wrestling like Cain Velasquez. Most people would say that Junior has fought stiffer competition then Cain dispatching of names like Fabricio Werdum, Shane Carwin, Mirko Crocop, and Roy Nelson with relative ease. Junior's boxing is the best in the heavyweight division and, in my opinion, it's not even close. Junior uses his range and footwork to jab his opponents and counters with the right uppercut when his opponents shoot in. He has knockout power in both hands, but tends to not throw many kicks. We also have yet to see Junior on the ground. He is a blackbelt under the Noguiera brothers which is nothing to sneeze at but we have yet to see how Junior would react to getting taken down and put on his back in the octagon. There is a reason that we haven't seen Junior on his back in the octagon. Junior's takedown defense is some of the best in the sport. He has a great underhook and is so fast for a heavyweight that he is hard to catch. It will be interesting to see what Cain does to try to take this fight to the ground.

OUTCOME - This fight is going to be exciting. No matter what. Both fighters are phenomenal and I could not be happier as a fan that this is happening tomorrow night. With that said, I look for Cain to come out quickly and try to bully Junior around the cage and continuously work for the takedown keeping the pressure on Junior and not letting him find his range early. I don't think Cain will be able to get Junior down but I do think he will use some wall and stall tactics early on. Junior will defend Cain's takedown, underhook and circle off the cage, using his jab and uppercuts to keep Cain from shooting in for a takedown. Don't look for many, if any, leg kicks or kicks of any kind from Junior for fear of the takedown. Cain has been out of commission, due to injury, for over a year and this is his first fight back and his first title defense. Due to that fact I don't look for Cain to be completely up to speed with his usual fights and possibly coming out sluggish in the 2nd round. I look for Junior to take advantage of this and land some big shots in the 2nd round to finish the fight by TKO and become the new UFC Heavyweight Champion.

Fav Picks: Week 10 NFL

The heater has continued as not only did I go 3-0 again for my NFL picks, but I was also 1-0 in college football.  I'm 11-0-1 AGAINST THE SPREAD on my NFL picks in the last month.  I don't mean to brag but, I picked 4 road teams to cover last week and they did.  I told you that I thought Louisville and Bengals would win outright, they did.  I have watched more football this year than I have in all my life combined and it's paying off.  I have never been on a heater like this so, I'm wondering if I should just quit on top like Tony La Russa did.  However, I see my bank account and it just doesn't have enough zeros so, here I am to hopefully continue my success. 

Game one I like this week is Baltimore Ravens (-7) at the Seattle Seahawks.  I'm taking the Ravens in this one.  The Seahawks offense is 29th in the league in total yards and 30th in rushing.  They are a little better in passing at 23rd but, all of this bad offense is going against the 2nd ranked defense in the league.  The Ravens are starting to get the passing game going with Anquan Boldin and Torre Smith catching a combined 40 balls over the past 4 games.  The Ravens against the lower 16 QBs in the league this season have only allowed an average of 137 passing yards a game in 3 games.  The same thing is going to happen this weekend against Tarvaris Jackson.  The Seahawks might get shut out.  I expect the Ravens to win pretty big.  Ravens win 24-7.  Bet 5 Units.

The second game I like this week in NFL is the Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at the Indianapolis Colts.  I'm taking the Jaguars in this one.  Even with one of the worst offenses in the league, Jacksonville is in the top half in rushing yards, have a top 5 defense and have 16 takeaways this season.  The Colts have 16 giveaways with 2nd worst offense.  I think the Colts will keep it close early because Jacksonville has trouble scoring (especially vertically through the air) but, their running game will take over in the second half and their defense will make the stops they need to win.  Also, let's not forget the Colts are now leading the sweepstakes for Andrew Luck, they don't want to ruin that.  Jaguars will win 24-10.  Bet 3 units.

The last game I like this week (so far, I need to see if some lines change) is the Tennessee Titans(+3 1/2) at the Carolina Panthers.  I'm buying the half point and taking the Panthers in this one.  The Titans have a weighted 4-4 record with 3 of those victories coming over Denver, Cleveland, and Indy.  They are last in the league at rushing and are in the bottom third in overall defense.  In their 4 loses their average margin of loss is 16 points.  They are 1-2 on the road with the one win against the bad offense of Cleveland.  Facing top 10 offenses they are 0-2 with a margin of loss average of over 27 points.  Carolina also has a weighted record at 2-6 but, going the other way as they have lost to Green Bay, at Chicago, New Orleans, at Atlanta, and the up and down Minnesota team.  The Panthers are coming off a bye week and have one of the leagues most EXPLOSIVE offenses and will pile up the points against the Titans lack luster defense.  Carolina wins 31-20.  Bet 5 units.   


 

Fav Picks: Continued

Sorry for my absence last week, I had a very busy week and was not able to blog my picks.  With that being said, I was 3-0 on my NFL picks, and 1-1 on my NCAA picks.  I am on a heater right now with the NFL and hope the success continues.  I love my picks this week. 

I am going to start with my NFL picks this week as I have three of them.  My first pick is the Atlanta Falcons (-7 1/2) at the Indianapolis Colts.  I'm taking the Falcons in this one (and buying the half a point) and am very confident about it.  Falcons are coming off a bye week which they needed to get star Rookie receiver Julio Jones back.  Their running game is improving and to be honest doesn't need to be that great against the Colts who are 2nd to last in the league in stopping the run.  Plus, it is almost like the Colts really are in the "suck for luck" sweepstakes.  They are competing with the 0-8 Dolphins but, the Dolphins have came out and said they are still trying, I really haven't heard that from the Colts.  I don't think anyone wants to lose but if the Falcons have any kind of lead after halftime, you watch the Colts give up.  They did against the Saints and in their last three games have went 3 and out or turned the ball over 22 of 35 (62%) times.  I'm putting 1 Unit on this game.  Atlanta wins 31-21.

PICK OF THE WEEK 
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at the Tennessee Titans.  I'm taking the Bengals in this game and am ALL IN on it.  I've said it before and will say it again, when the better team is given points you take the spread all day everyday.  The Bengals are 4th in the league in total yards defense and 2nd in rush defense.  The Titans are LAST in the league in rushing and Chris Johnson has shown no signs of being the same CJ2K he used to be.  He is only averaging 2.8 yards a carry on 107 attempts.  Titans receivers (beside Washington) are terrible.  Kenny Britt is still 2nd on the team in receiving and he has been out since week 4!  I want to take this game straight up but, will be playing it safe this week as the Titans are 3-1 at home.  I'm putting 10 units on  this game.  Cincinnati wins 24-23.

Game three of my NFL picks is San Fransisco 49ers (-4) at the Washington Redskins.  I'll be taking the 49ers in this one.  Washington is hurting at RB and WR and don't have consistent QB play.  San Fran has the best rush defense in the league which will make the Skins' throw the ball.  Washington's average margin of loss in their last 3 games (all losses) is over 13 points a game.  San Fran's average margin of victory (beside the TB blowout) is right over 7 points a game and have only won by less than 4 points one time.  With this being said, if you think the 49ers will win and numbers don't lie, bet the Niners.  I'll be putting 3 units on this game.  San Fran wins 30-10.

My one and only NCAA pick this week is the Louisville Cardinals (+14) over the West Virginia Mountaineers.  I'm taking the Cardinals, I bet against them a few weeks ago and picked WV a couple weeks ago and lost both games.  I have watched both of these teams a lot lately and the tides of changed.  The Cardinals defense is one the best in the nation.  They are getting better every week on both sides of the ball.  Last week Bridgewater (Cardinals QB) threw for 2 tds and RB Victor Anderson had a good game as well against a Syracuse team who KILLED West Virginia.  Also, in the past 6 meetings between these two, no score has ever been decided by more than 14 points.  I really like the Cardinals in this one, however, predicting the weather might be easier than predicting the Big East.  I'll be betting 5 units.  Cardinals win 21-20.