11.08.2011

Fav Picks: Week 10 NFL

The heater has continued as not only did I go 3-0 again for my NFL picks, but I was also 1-0 in college football.  I'm 11-0-1 AGAINST THE SPREAD on my NFL picks in the last month.  I don't mean to brag but, I picked 4 road teams to cover last week and they did.  I told you that I thought Louisville and Bengals would win outright, they did.  I have watched more football this year than I have in all my life combined and it's paying off.  I have never been on a heater like this so, I'm wondering if I should just quit on top like Tony La Russa did.  However, I see my bank account and it just doesn't have enough zeros so, here I am to hopefully continue my success. 

Game one I like this week is Baltimore Ravens (-7) at the Seattle Seahawks.  I'm taking the Ravens in this one.  The Seahawks offense is 29th in the league in total yards and 30th in rushing.  They are a little better in passing at 23rd but, all of this bad offense is going against the 2nd ranked defense in the league.  The Ravens are starting to get the passing game going with Anquan Boldin and Torre Smith catching a combined 40 balls over the past 4 games.  The Ravens against the lower 16 QBs in the league this season have only allowed an average of 137 passing yards a game in 3 games.  The same thing is going to happen this weekend against Tarvaris Jackson.  The Seahawks might get shut out.  I expect the Ravens to win pretty big.  Ravens win 24-7.  Bet 5 Units.

The second game I like this week in NFL is the Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at the Indianapolis Colts.  I'm taking the Jaguars in this one.  Even with one of the worst offenses in the league, Jacksonville is in the top half in rushing yards, have a top 5 defense and have 16 takeaways this season.  The Colts have 16 giveaways with 2nd worst offense.  I think the Colts will keep it close early because Jacksonville has trouble scoring (especially vertically through the air) but, their running game will take over in the second half and their defense will make the stops they need to win.  Also, let's not forget the Colts are now leading the sweepstakes for Andrew Luck, they don't want to ruin that.  Jaguars will win 24-10.  Bet 3 units.

The last game I like this week (so far, I need to see if some lines change) is the Tennessee Titans(+3 1/2) at the Carolina Panthers.  I'm buying the half point and taking the Panthers in this one.  The Titans have a weighted 4-4 record with 3 of those victories coming over Denver, Cleveland, and Indy.  They are last in the league at rushing and are in the bottom third in overall defense.  In their 4 loses their average margin of loss is 16 points.  They are 1-2 on the road with the one win against the bad offense of Cleveland.  Facing top 10 offenses they are 0-2 with a margin of loss average of over 27 points.  Carolina also has a weighted record at 2-6 but, going the other way as they have lost to Green Bay, at Chicago, New Orleans, at Atlanta, and the up and down Minnesota team.  The Panthers are coming off a bye week and have one of the leagues most EXPLOSIVE offenses and will pile up the points against the Titans lack luster defense.  Carolina wins 31-20.  Bet 5 units.   


 

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