9.23.2011

Thank you, Nick Diaz


Here's the rundown: Nick Diaz is the Strikeforce Welterweight Champion. He calls out Georges St. Pierre, UFC Welterweight Champion. He is given the fight he asked for if he vacates the SF title and signs a new contract with the UFC, which he does. He must attend 2 pressers to promote the event, but doesn't make the one in Toronto because he lost his passport. He fails to attend the one in Las Vegas for an unknown reason. UFC President Dana White announces that since Nick Diaz isn't going to promote the fights and is unreliable, he will not fight for the title. Instead, former WEC champion Carlos Condit will be given the title fight at UFC 137. This leaves B.J. Penn without an opponent. Nick Diaz fills Condit's spot and will fight Penn.

I don't think this could have worked out any better for everybody involves...well...everybody except Diaz. He was estimated to make approximately $2 million for his fight contract, sponsorships, bonuses, and his Pay-Per-View cut. Instead, he will get paid whatever his UFC contract is for; and if I had to guess, I believe it is somewhere between $100,000 and $150,000. Tack that on to the loss of the title shot and I'd bet dollars to donuts that Diaz wishes he had made those flights.

On the other hand, this works out great for the fans and the UFC.

Diaz, while well-known in the MMA community as a top 10 WW, he is not as recognizable to the UFC fans. While this will not be his UFC debut, it will be his first time in the Octagon since 2006. To the casual fan, his fight may appear as if GSP has demolished all of his worthy opponents, so we can throw this lesser fighter against him. This couldn't be further from the truth, but could be what your standard Brock Lesnar fan thinks.

B.J. Penn is a fighter with a comparable following to GSP, who simply isn't as difficult to defeat. Diaz has been given a real gift here, if he can do what needs to be done. This fight is an opportunity for him to defeat a future hall-of-fame fighter with a large fan base on a card that will surely have many PPV sales, due to GSP headlining the card. A loss to St. Pierre would have eliminated him from relevancy before he even had a chance to earn some fans. A win against Penn will give him a stronger following, more marketability, and a good chance of earning a title shot within the next year.

In the title fight, we get to see a more recognizable fighter in Condit who is unlike any that St. Pierre has faced in recent history. Condit is a dynamic and unpredictable striker with knock-out power. He also is very dangerous off of his back, so he will use attacks that open him up for takedowns, such as the flying knee he used to KO then-undefeated WW prospect, Dong Hyun Kim.

St. Pierre had not produced the exciting fights that he used to in some time now. He fights safe, sticks to a game plan, and is not afraid to win every fight by decision to retain his title. He is still one of the most dangerous fighters on the planet to anyone willing to engage with him. His dominance has created a level of fear in his recent opponents, who seem unwilling to fight the same style they used to earn the title fight.

Condit eliminates the fear of a boring fight entirely. He has always shown willingness to throw caution to the wind to finish his fights, with only one of his 27 wins going to decision. He has shown KO power in his hands, knees, and feet. He has submitted 13 opponents with his underrated Jiu-Jitsu.

Don't get me wrong: none of these aspects of his game make him the favorite in this fight. But his style and versatility make him a dangerous opponent who will certainly force GSP to defend and engage to win this fight. If Condit does manage to win, he won't be the type of champion to hold the belt for years to come, but will continue to provide exciting fights for the fans.

Best-case scenario for the UFC and Nick Diaz: Condit pushes the pace of the fight, forcing St. Pierre to go for the finish. The fans will be drawn to GSP's future fights. Diaz beats B.J. Penn, since GSP-Penn III has no appeal, since B.J. was battered and embarrassed in both outings. Diaz's stock rises with a win over a top 10 opponent and earns his title shot and then GSP-Diaz will be a much larger draw and PPV sales will certainly benefit.

If nothing else, the card has been dramatically upgraded and we will see the difference in the quality come October 29...and we only have Nick Diaz to thank for missing his press conference. Let's just hope that if he gets another chance in a year or so, he won't make the same mistake twice...

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